Thursday, May 11, 2017

Regionals Breakdown

After returning from NCAA Regionals last night, my mind was working on what seemed to be a lot of upsets occurring.  For that reason, I sat down today and plugged in a bunch of numbers.  Here are some of my unscientific conclusions after doing so.

  • We have a great deal of parity in NCAA Women's Golf
    • Of the 24 top ranked teams in the nation, only 13 will be competing at NCAA's
      • That means that 37% of the top seeded teams didn't advance
        • Does that bring up questions of the validity of our rankings?
        • Does course set up and weather at regionals differ greatly from regular season play?
    • The average ranking of the 24 teams at NCAA's is 21
    • The median ranking of the 24 teams at NCAA's is 17
    • Nine teams ranked from 24 to 50 made it to the NCAA Finals
  • The parity doesn't extend past the top 50
    • Only two teams ranked over 50 finished in the top halves of the four regional fields
    • One team ranked over 50 qualified
      • That team had a mid-year addition. That lead to an average of 27.5 shots better in the spring than the fall per tournament.  
        • One player can make a difference in women's golf
        • 9 shots a round points to more than one player making a difference
  • Rankings seem most valid in the Big Ten
    • 83% of the ranked teams at Regionals made it through to the finals.
  • Rankings seem least valid in Non-power 5 schools and SEC
    • Only 27% of the ranked Non-power 5 schools made it through to the finals
    • Only 38% of the ranked SEC schools made it through to the finals.
  • The NCAA did a decent job of splitting up the schools
    • The lowest median ranking of teams was in Lubbock at 28
    • The highest median ranking of teams was in Columbus with 24
      • Columbus had one fewer top 50 team than the other three regional sites
    • The other two regional sites both had median rankings of 26
    • The average ranking (28) of the teams advancing  from Athens was actually higher than the average ranking (27) of the ranked teams not advancing.
      • This anomaly is due to both the rise of Michigan State and the fall of Wake Forest
      • It is still a remarkable fact!
  • Five of the 12 individual qualifiers were ranked outside the top 100 players in the nation
  • Four of the 12 individual qualifiers were playing as individuals at the regional tournament

Here's the link to my spreadsheet with breakdowns that I chose to include.  Make your own conclusions and feel free to comment.  Some final points: In the "old days", we used to sit in a room and look at the data and put teams into fields based on the information we had.  If that had happened this year, would the rankings be more valid?  Michigan State, Wake Forest, Clemson and Washington all had remarkably different spring seasons than their fall seasons.  When a committee made the choices instead of a horseshoe placement by ranking, this would have been taken into account.  The horseshoe by ranking also doesn't seem to allow for regional considerations, which made for some very expensive travel for many teams.

It's hard to know what to think of all of this, but I do know that all but 24 teams are ending their seasons a few weeks earlier than they would have liked.  When you love your team as much as we did ours this year, that makes it a painful ending.  At the end of the year, every shot counts.  It is a cliche, but it is the truest one ever.  Most of the time, if your team simply plays to it's average, you will advance.  However, the end of the year comes with a tough academic schedule (finals), the need for good team chemistry and the need for healthy players.  Our goal for next year will be to fight for each shot from day one so that is the habit instead of something we talk about in post-season.  That is a mindset goal that the best teams have, along with the goal of getting better each day.  When you have great people and players to coach, you want that extra few weeks to spend with them; learning, competing and laughing.



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